REUTERSAlexandros Avramidis

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" Refugee children play with a stuffed toy at a muddy makeshift camp at the Greek-Macedonian
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 , near the village of Idomeni, Greece March 15, 2016.
REUTERSAlexandros Avramidis
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Leaders of the European Union meet in Brussels on Thursday to agree on a deal to offer Turkey the following day that would secure
Ankara's commitment to a scheme intended to halt migrant flows to the Greek
islands.


A year into a crisis in which more than a million people have arrived in chaotic misery, many of them Syrian war refugees and most of whom come from
Turkey via Greece to Germany via dangerous sea crossings and long treks, hopes
have risen around the summit table that they may have found a way to at least
slow the movement.


But leaders acknowledge there is no silver bullet and face many obstacles over the next two
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 , from howls of outrage that they plan mass expulsions of
vulnerable people to a country with a patchy and worsening human rights record,
to a lingering feud between Ankara and small but vocal EU member Cyprus.


""Work is progressing but there is still a lot to do,"" European Council President Donald Tusk wrote to leaders inviting them to the summit he will
chair. After discussing the economy, the 28 EU national leaders will discuss the
migration issue over dinner, starting around 8 p.m. (1900 GMT).


A breakfast is set for Friday with Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu Cheap
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 , where Tusk hopes to finalize a deal which the
Turkish premier first sprang on the EU, with backing from German Chancellor
Angela Merkel, at a special summit 10 days ago.


Under the deal, which was set out in fuller fashion by Tusk in a draft for EU leaders on Wednesday, Turkey
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and prevent the smuggling of migrants via rafts, take back all those, including
Syrian refugees, who do make it to Greek islands off Turkey's coast.


The draft, which was seen by Reuters Wholesale Milwaukee Bucks
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 , says the plan is ""to break the business model of the smugglers
and to offer migrants an alternative to putting their lives at risk"". It
stresses the plan is ""a temporary and extraordinary measure which is necessary
to end the human suffering and restore public order"".


CYPRUS QUESTION

Potentially the most explosive topic, which diplomats say risks derailing the whole deal, will be how Davutoglu responds to a vague offer to open new
""chapters"" of Turkey's snail-like negotiations to join the EU at some distant
future date.


Several of these have been blocked by Cyprus over Turkey's refusal to give it the same rights as other EU states in access to Turkish ports and airports - a
result of the 42-year dispute since the violent partition of the island into a
Greek-speaking state and a Turkish-speaking north recognized only by Turkey.


Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades has made clear he will lift his veto on Turkish accession chapters only if Ankara ends its refusal to recognize Cyprus.
Turkey wants concessions for its northern Cypriot allies in return. The EU and
world powers are keen not to derail U.N. talks that could reunite the island.


Tusk's draft says the EU would work with Turkey to ""prepare for a decision"" on opening new accession chapters ""as soon as possible"" - a hazy prospect
Davutoglu may not appreciate.


But in his invitation letter, Tusk stressed that only if the migrant deal could help advance the broader talks on ending the long confrontation with
Cyprus, could it hope to succeed.


To satisfy EU and international law Wholesale Bucks Jerseys ,
Greece and Turkey will have to modify domestic legislation so that Turkey is
regarded as protecting asylum seekers in line with the Geneva Convention, even
though Ankara limits its formal commitments to that treaty.


EU officials argue that the alternative to holding people back in Turkey is to see a further build-up of migrants stranded in deteriorating conditions in
Greece, whose European neighbors have closed their borders. Already over 40,000
are marooned.


Legal gymnastics, and the scorn of U.N. and other rights bodies Cheap Milwaukee Bucks
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 , aside, the deal foresees all those arriving having a right to
state their case for asylum and to appeal.


However, EU officials stress that the intention is quickly to deter most people from even trying to make the crossing, so the arrival of thousands a day
as occurred last year is unlikely. If such numbers keep coming, the plan will
have failed Cheap Bucks Jerseys ,
they say.


For each Syrian refugee who eludes efforts to stop illegal migration whom Turkey agrees to take back, Turkey will see a Syrian refugee resettled directly
to Europe. The draft makes clear the total number is likely to be limited to
about 72,000 out of nearly 3 million Syrians in Turkey.


That figure represents what the deeply divided EU states agreed last year to take in under two different schemes for sharing responsibilities. Leaders may
talk more about who takes how many. Tusk's draft spoke of the process being
""voluntary"" in a nod to eastern EU states which oppose a series of refugees
quotas Brussels imposed last year.


Longer-term, the EU leadership and the likes of Merkel are pushing hard for a system of resettling much larger numbers of refugees from the Middle East in
Europe. That is opposed by others who say it would fuel xenophobic nationalism
which has already surged, as seen in elections on Sunday in Germany.


Diplomats said there was also likely to be discussion of how quickly a second 3-billion-euro tranche of aid for Syrians in Turkey should be on the table for
Davutoglu and of the precise details of an offer to provide visa-free travel to
Europe for Turks by late
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 , if Ankara meets numerous conditions in time.

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Posted 24 Oct 2018

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