dellivar
Age: 2023
Total Posts: 8
Points: 10
Location:
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Now I'm not a serious sports bettor by any stretch, aside from the occasional $5-$20 or a beer between friends. In general I've always believed systems in sports betting to be a fad or luck. Maybe in a week or two you'll get positive results, but over time it will even out.But what if you have a system and over a period of time you are constantly getting positive results? How long would that period of time be until you considered it works?I'm currently testing a theory of mine in the NFL. I've yet to have a losing week and as of Monday night I'm 14-2. I'm aware it's only week 6 of the season, and it could just be a hot start. But when would you consider hey, maybe I got something here?
Terres
Age: 2023
2127 days old here
Total Posts: 6
Points: 10
Location:
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There are two ways really. One is to back test against historical data and the other is to just wait and see. I would caution against getting overly excited because you could easily be experincing the positive side of variance. For example, in a coin flip where we flip a fair coin 100x times we'll see results ranging on average from 40x heads/tails to 60x heads/tails 19 out of 20 times we run that test but the true probability is 50/50. So a sports bettor that is getting true 50/50 on his picks can see variance go as high as 60% and as low as 40% over 100x samples on a very regular basis and can see even larger swings but more rarely. If you want to make some fast money and you like to watch sports matches, you can bet on
