Review Good morning folks
Dante Pettis Jersey , and a happy Thursday to you. Tonight’s game should be a solid watch, as two of the most talented teams in the league face off in what
may be an NFC Championship Game Preview. The Los Angeles Rams and Minnesota
Vikings are both teams that boast extremely talented defenses, fruitful passing
games, and potent running games. Although the Kirk Cousins and the Vikings had a
stunningly poor effort against a bottom-feeding Buffalo Bills team last week,
he’ll (they’ll) go a long way to restore trust in their team by beating Goff and
the Rams tonight.In 49ers news, the injury report is out for the week and, well,
the team has really outdone itself. Jimmy Garoppolo has been officially moved to
the IR, and practice squad QB Nick Mullens has been activated as the backup to
former-backup-turned-starter-turned-backup-turned-starter-again CJ Beathard.
Offensively, the team is dealing with a hyperextended knee with Matt Breida,
limiting his participation in practices, as well as a lingering knee issue for
guard Mike Person and a toe injury for guard Joshua Garnett, which kept both out
of practice on Wednesday. Marquise Goodwin was also limited, as he recovers from
a quad injury sustained in week 2.Defensively, the entire secondary is injured.
I kid you not, they’re all on the injury report. Ahkello Witherspoon, the
healthiest of the group, reported full participation, but is listed with ankle
and hip issues. I’m hoping this gets some attention in upcoming press
conferences - if he’s playing through pain, I wonder if it’s an indictment of
rookie Tarvarius Moore. Either way, safeties Adrian Colbert and Jaquiski Tartt
both missed practice, with hip and shoulder issues respectively. Richard Sherman
is expected to be out for several weeks with a calf injury. I mean, the ENTIRE
SECONDARY is listed as banged up. Start every Chargers receiver on your
bench!49ers promote QB Nick Mullens from practice squad | Maiocco, NBC Sports
Bay Area | Wagoner, ESPN | Madson, NinerswireMissed tackles plaguing this
defense | Maiocco, NBC Sports Bay AreaWednesday injury report | Maiocco, NBC
Sports Bay Area | Madson, NinerswireFilm Review: Shanahan’s playcalling should
make CJ Beathard’s job easier | Almquist, KNBRKyle Juszczyk is a much different
fullback than anyone else | Almquist, KNBR5 players who need to step up |
Madson, Ninerswire Every year, draft obsessives look at the NFL Draft Value
Chart, which gives a point value to different draft picks so that you can figure
out what a (roughly) fair trade is. For example, the San Francisco 49ers second
overall pick this spring is worth 2,600 points (while first overall is 3,000).
Mr. Irrelevant costs you 2 points; the entire 7th round, all 32 picks combined,
is only worth 256.3.The first few picks have skyrocketing value, which is great
news for Niners fans this year. Consider the tie breaker with the Raiders and
the Jets; Oakland/Las Vegas’ pick (#4 overall) is worth only 1,800 points. So by
winning that tie breaker, the Niners’ gained 800 points, which is the value of
Seattle’s first round pick this year at #21 overall. That’s right, #2 overall is
worth #4 overall plus #21 overall.Sure, the three teams reverse their pecking
order in the second round, but the difference between #34 (560 points)and San
Francisco’s #36 (540) is tiny; 20 points is a bit less than pick #23 in the 6th
round.Or is it? Jimmy Johnson’s chart has been criticized for overvaluing top
picks. Wouldn’t you rather have two first round picks, instead of one that’s
just two slots higher? Not necessarily. This is the genius of the chart, because
elite talent is rare, and the Niners’ need for a great edge rusher is a perfect
example. There are two
George Kittle Jersey , possibly three great sure-fire pass rushers this year. There aren’t four.If Arizona does not take Bosa, or you don’t think Josh Allen
is that much better than, say, Jachai Polite, you might gamble on a trade down
to #4 for an extra first rounder. But if you need the best edge rusher possible
— and a lot of people think San Francisco does — some marginal cornerback at the
end of the first round will be weak compensation for not getting what you
desperately need.Some people have tried to improve on the chart. Around 2012,
Football Perspective website and a group from Harvard each made their own chart,
which dropped the relative value of the top spots. Johnson’s chart has #1
overall worth 1,500 times more than #224, but Football Perspective’s top pick is
only 346 times as much (0.1 to 34.6), and Harvard’s increase is a mere 15.9
times (31.1 to 494.6).But I can’t find anyone who admits to still using these
charts, while Johnson’s still seems to be the starting point for NFL trades.
Jerry Jones claims he has his own chart, but is he really the expert you want to
follow?Now keep in mind, the value is for the draft picks themselves. The fact
that you choose a bad player with the pick you got doesn’t change the trade’s
value. You just spent your pick unwisely.According to this chart, for example,
the Trent Richardson trade was a win for Cleveland. They got the #3 overall pick
(2200 points), and gave up #4 overall (1800), plus a fourth, fifth and seventh
round pick (worth only 58, 36.5 and 7 points respectively). That’s a 300 point
score.But: Trent Richardson was obviously a bust, and few people think any RB
that high is a good idea. Plus it was a weak draft at the top; the next best
players, in hindsight, might have been Luke Kuechly (#9) and Fletcher Cox (#12).
There was no good reason to move up that year.What about the Trubisky trade? The
Niners got an extra 3rd (#67) and 4th (#111), plus Chicago’s 3rd rounder the
following year (#70, which turned into Fred Warner) — all just to move down one
spot.On the charts, discounting Warner’s pick to a 2017 4th like you do, the
Niners gave up 2600 points in the form of the second overall pick, and got (2200
+ 255 + 72 + 96) = 2,623 points — a tiny bump. But Lynch didn’t need to be a
genius to know that Chicago was not moving up to get Solomon Thomas, and
obviously he wasn’t sold on Trubisky, so it was pretty much free money. You’d
think, though, thatBears GM Ryan Pace would know that if the Niners were even
discussing a trade, they weren’t sold on Trubisky so the Bears didn’t need to
trade at all.Let’s look at some of last year’s trades and see if the chart is
reflected in the swaps. Keep in mind a couple of things. A 3rd day pick next
year is generally one round higher than the same pick this year. (e.g. the
Patriots got a 3rd round pick in 2019 last year for their 2018 4th round pick.)
Also, late rounds have so little value that the chart hardly matters. It’s
almost a courtesy between GMs to swap 7th rounders, either worth an extra pick
or maybe I’ll scratch your back later.So, consider the Dante Pettis trade. The
49ers gave up a 2nd round pick (#59) and a 3rd (#74)— 310 + 220 points — to move
up 15 slots in the 2nd (to #44 overall), and also got #148 in the 5th round as a
sweetener (460 + 31.8).On the chart they overpaid mildly, giving up 530 points
and getting 491.8 back, but it’s not a huge difference. The Cardinals gave up
#15, #79 and #152 — 1275.2 combined — for #10 overall (1300 points) to get Josh
Rosen. Pretty close. But the Bills overpaid 400 points to grab QB Josh Allen:#7
overall and #255 (1501 points) in exchange for #12, #53 and #56 (1910 combined
points). According to the chart, they should have been able to get him with only
one of those two 2nd round picks plus their first.One final example: the Bills
swapped first round picks with the Ravens, moving up from #22 to #16, also
surrendering a 3rd round pick (#65) in exchange for a 5th (#154). All told, they
gave up 1,045 points in exchange for 1029.4, an almost perfectly even swap.There
are obviously a lot of complicating factors, but after more than 25 years Jimmy
Johnson’s draft chart is still holding up pretty well.
