Probability and Odds
There are two very simple rules of thumb for calculating the probability of improving your hand using your outs
poker online w88 :
The probability of hitting a draw on the next card is: [number of outs] x 2
The probability of hitting a draw on the turn and/or river is: [number of outs] x 4
A flush draw on the turn
You have a flush draw on the turn (nine outs). The probability of hitting the draw is [number of outs] x 2 = [winning probability in percent
w88 line :
9 x 2 = 18%
A straight draw on the flop
You have a gutshot straight draw (four outs) on the flop and want to know the probability of making a straight with two cards to come. The rule of thumb is: [number of outs] x 4 = [winning probability in percent]:
4 x 4 = 16%
Calculating Odds
Probabilities can be displayed as a ratio or odds, which is very helpful when playing poker.
Odds describe the ratio between the probability of winning and losing.
The winning probability is calculated as before. The losing probability is therefore:
[Losing probability] = 100% – [winning probability]
It’s best to commit the most important odds to memory, instead of having to calculate them again and again..
Examples of calculating odds
With middle pair:
You are holding A?8? on a board of K?8?3?2?. You’ve got middle pair. Assume that your opponent has top pair, with K?Q? for instance
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You have five outs: three aces and two eights. The probability of improving your hand is 10% (5 outs x 2). The probability that your hand doesn’t improve is therefore: 100% – 10% = 90%.
The odds are now [losing probability] / [winning probability]
In numbers: 90% / 10%. This can be simplified (both sides divided by 10), with the result being odds of 9:1.
