Over the last few weeks, the rand (ZAR) has strengthened considerably against some top currencies, namely the dollar (USD), euro (EUR), and
pound (GBP). These movements present possible selling opportunities for
the rand against these baskets of currencies.To get more news about
WikiFX, you can visit wikifx official website.
Arguably, the most notable one to watch would be USD/ZAR for an
excellent reason: employment figures. The recent selloff for this pair
correlates to similar selloffs with EUR/ZAR and GBP/ZAR. Generally
speaking, since the dollar is the most powerful currency, we can expect
that any reactions on USD/ZAR will affect the other two.
We could argue that one of the main reasons for the dip in USD/ZAR over the last
few weeks is the NFP results on the 4th of September, 2020. The forecast
was that the US economy would add 1400 jobs (excluding farm,
non-profit, private household, and government employees). However, the
figure came out at 1371, which negatively affects the dollar, at least
in the short term. A few days after, USD/ZAR and the other two ZAR pairs
started trending down as exemplified in the above image.
About a month ago, I had briefly spoken about the R16.34 level as a
potential supply zone for USD/ZAR. We would typically wait to see how
the market reacts around such areas. As we can see, the market clearly
broke that level and closed lower on two consecutive days. I dont
believe this level will hold the market for very long.
On the 16th of September, 2020, the market closed below the R16.34 level to R16.20.
If the level were strong enough, the market wouldnt have closed below
R16.20, yet it did. We should naturally expect a slight pullback to the
upside in the meantime. Now I believe there is a real chance that
USD/ZAR would trend lower at least some distance below R16.00. The
charts of EUR/ZAR and GBP/ZAR are all painting a similar picture, but
any pullback could turn into a continuation of the bigger uptrend for
other reasons
Those reasons could be around critical fundamental data coming up that
may significantly affect the price of ZAR. While there are other
fundamental data for the other currencies not long afterward, ZAR‘s data
will be a bit more relevant as it’d be released sooner. On the 29th of
September, 2020, the unemployment figures for Q2 will make their way
into the public domain. Q1s result, released on the 23rd of June 2020,
came in at a record high of 30.10%. Surprisingly, the forecast is
slightly lower, at 29.70%.
Jobs-wise, things in South Africa are unlikely to drastically improve
this year even with the less restricted lockdown rules that have seen
more people working again. It‘s going to be interesting if that figure
is any lower than 30.10%. If it’s higher, then we‘d expect ZAR to
weaken, and vice versa if it’s lower.
Strictly for this week, it would be wiser, in my opinion, to look for
any short opportunities across all three pairs. Simultaneously, we would
need to keep an eye on the unemployment figure for ZAR and some other
fundamental data coming afterward for USD, EUR, and GBP.
