Playoff hockey begins Wednesday and this years Playoff Payoff once again has the numbers and information to help you win your playoff pool.
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2014 NHL Playoff Payoff, a full team-by-team stats breakdown for your playoff
pool prep. When it comes to playoff pools, the basic strategy is simple: pick
players from the four teams you think will reach the Conference Finals; that
will give the players selected ample opportunity to score enough points for your
squad. Its very difficult, if not altogether impossible, to win without having a
solid presence among the final four teams because no matter how many points get
accumulated in early rounds, if your team runs out of active bodies before the
Conference Finals, its going to be extremely challenging to hold the lead.
Naturally, the focus will be on top seeds and there is nothing wrong with
loading up on players from Boston and Chicago if you can get quality players. At
the same time, it needs to be recognized that there is not a huge difference in
quality between the rest of the playoff teams, so theres likely going to be
plenty of value to be found on lower-seeded teams. That doesnt mean ignoring the
blue chip players -- top players on the favourite teams are the most valuable --
but it does suggest that once you have laid the groundwork with players from
higher-seeded teams, then there ought to be an opportunity to secure value on
lower seeds. There will come a time, at some point in your draft, that you have
to decide whether you would rather have the best player on a low seed or a
lesser player on a top seed and the answer will probably come by looking at the
players youve already selected. BEST PLAYER vs. PLAYER ON BEST TEAM If you can
take the best player off a lower seed, and it wont contradict any of your early
picks, then its likely a good move. If you dont have representation on a
highly-seeded team already, its generally not worth it to start investing in
lower-tier players. So, Reilly Smith and Carl Soderberg might offer value when
youre picking Bruins, but if they are the best available Bruins by the time you
pick, youre likely fighting an uphill battle to beat out teams that have
David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, Jarome Iginla etc. As an aside, it makes lots of
sense to target Bruins because they have a more definitive edge over their
Eastern Conference competition, compared to the West where, for example,
legitimate Cup contenders Los Angeles and San Jose meet in Round One, and one of
them has to lose. It could make more sense, instead, to go for Zach Parise or
Mikko Koivu, top players on a lower seed that offer bigger marginal returns if
they pull off at least one series upset. INJURIES Just as with the real teams
involved, injuries are always a factor in fantasy sports, so its imperative to
stay on top of the playing status of top players heading into the postseason,
both for the potential line combinations and having some idea who might be
filling in if a significant player remains sidelined. NHL teams are notorious
for being vague or even dishonest regarding injuries at the best of times, let
alone at this point in the season, but you may want to avoid, or at least
decrease the value of, guys who are already going into the playoffs with
injuries. As the playoffs start, there are a number of high profile players that
arent expected to be ready. That list includes: Matt Duchene, Nathan Horton,
Henrik Zetterberg, Mikael Granlund, Alex Galchenyuk, Chris Kreider,
Evgeni Malkin, and Vladimir Tarasenko. Add into that mix, stars that at least
have questionable health status after late-season injuries. Jonathan Toews,
Drew Doughty, Ryan McDonagh, Martin Hanzal, T.J. Oshie, David Backes and
Ben Bishop have all missed time late in the year and at least some could miss at
least some first-round games. PICKING PAIRS Consider doubling-up on line
combinations, when the value is right. If you set your sights on Joe Thornton
early, youll get all the more enjoyment out of Brent Burns a round or two later.
Over the short season of an NHL playoff tournament, a hot line can go a long way
and if you happen to pick the right one, that can tilt the results of your pool.
TAKE A CHANCE Dont be afraid to make a sleeper pick late in the draft. The small
sample size of playoffs lends itself to unexpected results, like Bryan Bickell
scoring 17 points last year, Bryce Salvador scoring 14 points in 24 games in
2012 (he had nine points in 82 regular season games), Joel Ward scoring 13
points in 12 games in 2011, Ville Leino tallying 21 points in 19 games in 2010
or many others, from Ruslan Fedotenko to R.J. Umberger to Fernando Pisani,
generally unheralded players who have all had double-digit goal totals in a
single playoff year. Late in your draft, roll the dice on an unheralded player
that might have a decent opportunity. THE NUMBERS Given these basic plans, the
following team lists will provide information to help organize your drafting
priorities. Each player listed has their points per game listed and thats a
general value to start with. Then, look at what the player has done in the later
portion of this season. Usually, I break down splits after the All-Star break
but, for this year, a look at the pre and post-Olympic splits can reveal some
changing roles. If the point totals are higher, maybe its a young player who is
taking on more responsibility, or a veteran whose playing situation changed due
to trade. Gustav Nyquist, for example, could be held in higher esteem than the
standard player that hasnt even scored 50 points. Nyquist was the leagues most
dangerous scorer from about mid-January through to the end of the season. The
third rate included for each player is their NHL career playoff scoring average.
In the vast majority of situations, that number will be lower than players
career averages because the playoffs are tighter checking games that involve the
best teams. Even some great players have lower career scoring averages in the
playoffs because they didnt contribute much early in their career and theyve
since emerged as elite postseason perfomers. Pavel Datsyuk, Marian Hossa,
Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau are among the high-profile players that didnt
produce early in the playoffs, but have had many productive postseasons since
then. By no means should previous playoff production eliminate a player from
consideration -- because sometimes a player is labeled as unproven in the
postseason, until suddenly he is -- but if a player has made a career of
under-performing in the playoffs, the safe play could be to let someone else
take that risk or wait an extra round or two before wading into those waters.
Power plays rule the postseason so make sure your roster is loaded with players
who get time with the man advantage. No one in the Top 20 of last years playoff
scoring had zero power play points. Bostons Milan Lucic along with Chicagos
Patrick Kane and Bryan Bickell each had one power play point. Power play
defencemen, in particular, have more value in the playoffs so dont let these
players slip by you in the middle-to-later rounds of the draft. Kris Letang,
Zdeno Chara, Slava Voynov, Duncan Keith and Paul Martin all hit double figures
in scoring in last years playoffs, all with at least four points on the power
play. Power play point totals are included as a general guide for which players
are most likely to get those man advantage opportunities. Finally, as the
postseason approaches and match-ups are set, check out the Fantasy Hockey Update
playoff editions, and my blog which will have my playoff picks for more
information as you prepare to win your playoff pool. Click here for TSN.cas 2014
NHL Playoff Payoff, a full team-by-team stats breakdown for your playoff pool
prep.
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