The other day, I wrote the
Jonathan Jones Jersey Chicago White Sox still dont seem very good. Naturally, that drew something of a negative response, and thats fine people ought to be excited, and it was kind of a buzzkill headline. The White Sox have been active, and general manager Rick Hahn has succeeded in turning nothing into something, a minimum of so far as 2015 is worried. We all recognize theres grounds they play the games. Who knows what could happen? You never know what else Hahn might eventually do? Yet, within the comments, something caught my attention. Some people think Steamer projects too much regre sion with the White Sox. Which got a bit of gears whirring: How do our current projections compare to roster projections only using last years stats?
Obviously, if youre trying to predict Year X + 1, you need to look at information from more than just Year X. Different people will recommend looking at different windows, but because a rule of thumb, you need to consider at least three or four years, when the datas there. Plus, you may still find other things to take into account. But while Year X isnt the one thing thats important, Year X is also the freshest data occur memory. So when a projection is different from what literally just finished happening, people may be vulnerable to thinking that somethings ami s.
The way I figure, we've projected information, and we also have perceived projected information. The former, at this time, originates from Steamer. The second, meanwhile, is influenced very heavily in what happened in 2014. So I wanted to try to look for the biggest differences. Theres no right way to do this, but I chose to use our author-maintained, team-by-team depth charts. Those depth charts provide something like expected playing time. I then opted to simply connect 2014 WAR figures for every player, adjusting for plate appearances or innings. I set, as 2014 minimums, 100 plate appearances or 25 innings. I used 0.0 WAR for everyone else. For most of those guys, expectations is going to be low, given that they didnt do anything whatsoever in the majors last summer. It doesnt work for everyone Matt Harvey, for example however it works in most cases.
Before getting to the table, allow me to note it was written Tuesday night, and the Jimmy Rollins and Matt Kemp trades still arent official. Also, theres talk of the Wil Myers thing? In case thats happened by morning, it wasntnot happening when i was writing this.So. The table. Theres Steamer projected WAR, and the league rank. Then theres projected WAR using projected playing some time and last years statistics and the league rank. Finally, theres the second WAR, subtracted in the
Nate Washington Jersey first WAR. Here, we might see differences between objective projections and expectations influenced by recency bias.
The sums dont complement perfectly theres more total WAR using last years numbers. It doesnt matter.
TeamSteamer WARMLB RankUsing 2014 WARMLB RankWAR DifferenceRed Sox42.9134.2168.7Rangers31.81925.3256.5Yankees36.21132.4213.8Braves25.02722.2302.8Giants32.41830.0232.4Reds26.82524.8272.0Rays36.61034.7141.9Athletics35.51333.9181.6Mariners38.3538.390.0Cubs33.61633.720-0.1Diamondbacks24.42825.326-0.9Royals36.01237.011-1.0Indians36.6838.110-1.5White Sox28.82230.722-1.9Pirates36.6939.08-2.4Astros25.42627.824-2.4Rockies32.71735.213-2.5Padres21.32924.628-3.3Angels35.41439.67-4.2Twins29.32134.017-4.7Phillies19.33024.229-4.9Brewers29.62034.615-5.0Cardinals39.8345.15-5.3Tigers38.1743.66-5.5Nationals41.1247.32-6.2Mets27.32433.819-6.5Marlins28.42336.712-8.3Blue Jays38.3447.33-9.0Orioles34.01545.44-11.4Dodgers38.1651.61-13.5Interestingly, though this was partially inspired through the White Sox, theyre in the actual middle. Granted, a few of the disagreement concerns Adam Eaton, and whether his DRS or UZR defense is more correct. Thats getting too specific. It seems like, even using last years information, as available at FanGraphs, the White Sox dont project as a particularly strong team. Stronger, absolutely. However the odds are still against them. Every team needs some breaks, and also the White Sox take some more breaks.
The biggest negative difference, and the biggest difference overall, is one of the La Dodgers. A small chunk of case Justin Turner. Turners coming off way too good a year. Youve also got Steamer projecting regre sion from Clayton Kershaw and, to some le ser extent, Hyun-Jin Ryu. Itd be interesting to check out it can once the Rollins and Kemp trades are considered, since we type of know those are happening and its a little annoying theyve been delayed. But while the perception may be that the Dodgers are really strong, Steamer thinks theyre just good. The very best within the division, but perhaps not the very best in baseball.
Then you have to speak to the American League East. This is when I think the actual meat of the table is. In my Tuesday chats, Ive fielded questions about if the Toronto Blue Jays are division favorites. Ive also been asked why I like the Boston Red Sox more than the Baltimore Orioles, considering everything that just happened. Based on last years numbers, the current Red Sox look like a middle-of-the-pack sort of ballclub. The Jays and
Matthew Slater Jersey Orioles, meanwhile, would be a pair of top-five teams. Yet Steamer switches everything. Instead of the Red Sox being more than 10 WAR behind the above rivals, they end up several WAR ahead. And this, again, doesnt incorporate a non-replacement-level projection for Rusney Castillo.
The Jays look great both in columns. Yet theres regre sion considered. With the Orioles, Steamer doesnt buy Adam Jones defense. Its not buying nearly a lot of Steve Pearce, after which its really not fond of the starting rotation. With the Red Sox, Steamer likes Xander Bogaerts. Thats hardly unreasonable. It thinks Shane Victorino will be healthy and average. It thinks Justin Masterson will recover and Joe Kelly will improve and Clay Buchholz is going to be effective and thatWade Miley and Rick Porcello were sound additions. Steamer doesnt think the Red Sox have holes anymore. They might have holes using their depth, but we cant project major injuries.
Really, you could think from it like this: The Red Sox added Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval to a lineup that should come with an improved Victorino and Bogaerts. Castillo last year only were built with a cup of coffee, and also the same goes for Mookie Betts. Around the pitching side, the Red Sox made a number of unsexy but reasonable additions. Around last season left an impre sion, the teams already made a lot of progre s moving away from that, and they havent even acquired an ace. Generate an income view it, the Red Sox and Blue Jays are kind of co-favorites, and at this time I give the Red Sox the slight edge. I dont think thats crazy.
Elsewhere, Steamer likes the Rangers more than 2014 liked the Texas Rangers, which isnt a surprise. Steamer still doesnt like the Rangers, butPrince Fielder sucked this season. Shin-Soo Choo sucked. Michael Choice had the cheapest WAR in baseball. The Rangers should surprise to some extent, especially if they add an impact starter. And Steamer is gloomier on the Miami Marlins. Blame some projected regre sion in the pitching staff, and significant regre sion from Casey McGehee and Dee Gordon. The depth charts dont yet include Michael Morse, however i can guarantee adding Morse will do little to alter the math.
Overall, its just something to think about among considering more e sential things. Probably the most interesting part has to be the AL
Brandon King Jersey East. According to current rosters as well as on what went down a season ago, one might look for the Orioles and Blue Jays to become neck and neck in the battle for to begin with. Ask Steamer, though, and the Red Sox would be the unexpected favorites, with a modest margin. Just how heavily would you decide to weighwhat happened a season ago? Its a simple question that informs the way you comprehend the baseball landscape.
