Tanakas strong start leads bevy of eye-o

Earlier today our focus centered around an Angels stalwart on his way to avoid it of town, making it only fitting that tonights topic involves an AngelsCobi Hamilton Jersey outfielder going back to the team. Juan Rivera, the 30-yr old corner outfielder who has mi sed most of the latter seasons, is going to be an Angel for the next few years after signing a 3-yr/$12.75 mil deal today. The Angels bought out Garrett Anderson the 2009 off-season and also have been linked to Manny Ramirez as well, yet seemingly opted to go the safe route with Rivera.
Juan played in just 89 games last season, hitting .246/.282/.438, with 12 home runs. All in all, his .306 wOBA within 1 / 2 of a season made him worth -5.3 runs offensively. The year before, Rivera only appeared in 14 games, striking .279/.295/.442. In these two seasons, his O-Swing% looked very atypical of his previous performance. In 2006, Rivera had a career year, putting together a .310/.362/.525 line with 23 home runs, a .373 wOBA, and +17.5 offensive runs.
Defensively, he's certainly not hurt teams, but he will not light the planet on fire together with his glove, either. Since corner outfield positions carry exactly the same adjustment, a mix of his UZR totals in leftfield and rightfield peg Rivera as approximately a -3 and -5 run fielder. With aging, he appears like a -5 fielder continuing to move forward. Offensively, Marcel projects Juan to hit .272/.323/.450, a .332 wOBA which David DeCastro Jersey is the phrase league average. Should this come to fruition, Rivera would be worth 0 runs offensively and cost his team 5 runs defensively. Prorating the adjustments for 130 games and 430 PA docks him 6 runs for enjoying a corner outfield position and simultaneously adds 12 runs to take into account his value above replacement level.
Under this, Rivera could be +1 runs above replacement next year, or +0.1 WAR. At $5 mil/win, his fair market price would be $500,000. Unfortunately, his projections may Mike Webster Jersey be a bit skewed as they include two injury-plagued seasons. It is much more than likely that the Angels see Rivera as able to returning to his 2006 form in one way or any other. If he is able to create a .345 wOBA in 130 games and 500 PA, Rivera would be worth +6 runs on offense and -5 on defense before the adjustments. This results in +9 runs, or +0.9 WAR. At fair market price, that's a 1-yr deal worth $4.5 mil. Factoring inside a 10% discount rate for signing a longer deal, a 3-yr deal would be worth $12.15 mil.
Rivera actually signed for $12.75 mil, not very far off-base. Overall, a good deal for the Angels, as long as Rivera can stay healthy. An average annual value of $4.25 mil is well below the selling price Merril Hoge Jersey of players like Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell, whose defensive shortcomings almost completely counteract their offensive contributions. Rivera is not a defensive wizard, but if he is able to combine slightly above average offense with slightly below average defense, this can result in a fine deal for that Angels.