Over the last few weeks, the rand (ZAR) has strengthened considerably against some top currencies, namely the dollar
(USD), euro (EUR), and pound (GBP). These movements present possible
selling opportunities for the rand against these baskets of
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Arguably, the most notable one to watch would be USD/ZAR for an excellent reason:
employment figures. The recent selloff for this pair correlates to
similar selloffs with EUR/ZAR and GBP/ZAR. Generally speaking, since the
dollar is the most powerful currency, we can expect that any reactions
on USD/ZAR will affect the other two.
We could argue that one of the main reasons for the dip in USD/ZAR over the last few weeks is the
NFP results on the 4th of September, 2020. The forecast was that the US
economy would add 1400 jobs (excluding farm, non-profit, private
household, and government employees). However, the figure came out at
1371, which negatively affects the dollar, at least in the short term. A
few days after, USD/ZAR and the other two ZAR pairs started trending
down as exemplified in the above image.
About a month ago, I had briefly spoken about the R16.34 level as a potential supply zone for
USD/ZAR. We would typically wait to see how the market reacts around
such areas. As we can see, the market clearly broke that level and
closed lower on two consecutive days. I dont believe this level will
hold the market for very long.
On the 16th of September, 2020, the market closed below the R16.34 level to R16.20. If the level were strong
enough, the market wouldnt have closed below R16.20, yet it did. We
should naturally expect a slight pullback to the upside in the meantime.
Now I believe there is a real chance that USD/ZAR would trend lower at
least some distance below R16.00. The charts of EUR/ZAR and GBP/ZAR are
all painting a similar picture, but any pullback could turn into a
continuation of the bigger uptrend for other reasons
Those reasons could be around critical fundamental data coming up that may
significantly affect the price of ZAR. While there are other fundamental
data for the other currencies not long afterward, ZAR‘s data will be a
bit more relevant as it’d be released sooner. On the 29th of September,
2020, the unemployment figures for Q2 will make their way into the
public domain. Q1s result, released on the 23rd of June 2020, came in at
a record high of 30.10%. Surprisingly, the forecast is slightly lower,
at 29.70%.
Jobs-wise, things in South Africa are unlikely to drastically improve this year
even with the less restricted lockdown rules that have seen more people
working again. It‘s going to be interesting if that figure is any lower
than 30.10%. If it’s higher, then we‘d expect ZAR to weaken, and vice
versa if it’s lower.
Strictly for this week, it would be wiser, in my opinion, to look for any short opportunities across all three pairs.
Simultaneously, we would need to keep an eye on the unemployment figure
for ZAR and some other fundamental data coming afterward for USD, EUR,
and GBP.
