Each round of the playoffs, I forecast the round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series.
Brian Bellows Jersey . Its not intended to be some magical formula and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. This method was 5-3 in the first round and is currently 2-1 in the second round, with the Kings favoured entering their series against Anaheim (Game Seven goes tonight in Anaheim). More on context in a moment. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, the New York Rangers, over the regular season and playoffs have averaged 32.9 shots on goal per game and the Montreal Canadiens have allowed 31.0 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 31.95 shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Bruins. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for the Conference Finals: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Montreal 28.7 31.0 Carey Price .927 15.92 N.Y. Rangers 32.9 29.6 Henrik Lundqvist .922 16.33 Verdict: This series projects to be very closely contested. Through the first two rounds this year, only the two Los Angeles series projected to have a closer differential than the forecasted 0.41 goals between the Rangers and Canadiens, and both of those series were seven-gamers. Montreal has been a subpar puck possession team this year, but it turns out that they have a great goaltender and a dangerous power play, one that was 32% (8-for-25) against Boston. Knock off a few power play goals or give Price a save percentage below the .936 that he posted against the Bruins and it would be easy enough to see Boston in this spot. As for the Rangers, they were a strong puck possession club during the season that eliminated Pittsburgh despite losing the possession game to the Penguins in Round Two. The Rangers also have the benefit of good goaltending, as they rallied from a three-games-to-one series deficit, as Henrik Lundqvist stopped 102 of 105 shots (.971 SV%) in the last three Rangers wins. It would be too simple to suggest that goaltending determines this series, since both Price and Lunqvist are among the best, so there are other factors to consider. Both teams top-scoring forwards havent produced in the postseason. No one on the Rangers has more than Brad Richards nine points in 14 games and Rick Nash has yet to score a goal. Montreals big goal-scorers, Thomas Vanek and Max Pacioretty, combined to score four goals in Game Six and Seven against Boston, after combining for four in the first nine games of the playoffs. The lack of a go-to-scorer for both teams has emphasized the team approach. For Montreal, Lars Eller, Brendan Gallagher, Daniel Briere, Dale Weise and Rene Bourque are among those that have risen to the occasion at times in the playoffs, while the Rangers supporting cast of Benoit Pouliot, Derick Brassard and Carl Hagelin has been able to score just enough for the Blueshirts to reach the Conference Final. If there is a single non-goaltender with the power to shift the series, it could be Montreals P.K. Subban, the top-scoring defenceman in the playoffs who has been in the middle of just about everything that happens with the Canadiens. If Subban is great, that alone could be enough to overcome the slight statistical disadvantage in this forecast. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Chicago 32.4 27.7 Corey Crawford .919 17.64 Los Angeles 31.5 26.9 Jonathan Quick .915 16.78 Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Chicago 32.4 27.7 Corey Crawford .919 10.71 Anaheim 30.7 28.8 John Gibson .950 16.56 Verdict: Since there isnt much of a window between the second round ending, Friday night, and the Conference Final round beginning, Saturday at 1:00 pm ET, were going to look at both options in the Western Conference. Chicago hasnt even played their best hockey in the postseason, yet its still been good enough to dispatch St. Louis and Minnesota. Corey Crawford deserves some credit, because his .931 save percentage in this years playoffs is right on track with what he did last year (.932) on the way to the Blackhawks winning the Stanley Cup. Chicago was a dominant possession team during the regular season, second only to Los Angeles in Fenwick Close, but havent held that same edge in the playoffs. Better opposition, and all that. The same could be said for the Kings, who earned 56.7% of the unblocked 5-on-5 shot attempts during the regular season, but havent held that same territorial dominance in the playoffs. The interesting thing is that, while hes had some strong games in the playoffs -- both this year and historically -- Jonathan Quick hasnt been much better than average this year. Its reasonable enough to forecast the Blackhawks to survive that possible matchup, and not just because we know the Blackhawks will for sure be in the Conference Final. When it comes to breaking down the Chicago-Anaheim series, the model gets busted by Ducks rookie goalie John Gibson. Its one thing to have a goalie that has played a grand total of six games in the NHL as the starter, but his .950 save percentage in those games, stopping 171 of 180 shots, is a completely unsustainable level of play. Thing is, unsustainable levels of play can get a team through a playoff series. Gibson was a wildcard injection into the second round, against Los Angeles, after Frederik Andersen was injured, and gives the Ducks a chance in Game Seven. However, its not remotely reasonable forecast to suggest that the Ducks would be 5.85 goals ahead of the Blackhawks in a head-to-head seven-game series. The Ducks arent as strong a possession team as Los Angeles, or Chicago, and have relied on extraordinary shooting percentage, in addition to their hot goalie. The Blackhawks have been a team of high-percentage finishers too, so the Ducks best chance, should they survive the Battle of Los Angeles, may be for Gibson to keep on keeping on. Scott Cullen can be reached at
[email protected] and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook.
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Neal Broten Stars Jersey . Then, he delivered. Semien hit a tiebreaking RBI double in a two-run 12th, Jose Quintana pitched one-hit ball over seven innings, and the White Sox beat the Cubs 3-1 at Wrigley Field on Monday night. CHICAGO -- Lloyd McClendon tried to remember each of the five relievers who pitched so well as Saturday afternoons game stretched into the early evening. The manager of the Seattle Mariners gave up after a brief moment. It was enough to know they each had a scoreless outing. Brad Miller hit an RBI double in the 14th inning and Fernando Rodney earned his AL-best 25th save, leading Seattle to a 3-2 victory over the Chicago White Sox. "Each and every one of them came in, threw the ball extremely well," McClendon said of his bullpen, and then added with a chuckle, "I cant even remember who all pitched it was so long ago." Yoervis Medina, Charlie Furbush, Danny Farquhar, Tom Wilhelmsen (1-1) and Rodney combined for six innings of one-hit relief. Farquhar got five outs and Wilhelmsen pitched two innings. "Battle of the bullpens there, some good arms being run out, and we just kept fighting," Miller said. Michael Saunders reached on an infield single against Ronald Belisario (3-5) and swiped second before Miller hit a drive into the gap in left-centre for a ground-rule double. It was Millers first hit in six at-bats on the day. "A lot of character and a lot of grind today," Saunders said. Saunders and Logan Morrison had three hits apiece for Seattle, which has won five of six and 11 of 14 overall. Felix Hernandez pitched eight sharp innings to help the Mariners bounce back from Friday nights 7-1 loss in the series opener. Chicago managed only four hits while wasting another strong start by Jose Quintana, who struck out 10 in 7 2-3 innings. "When you play 14 innings and only get four hits obviously theyre doing something right," second baseman Gordon Beckham said. "Long day." The game was scoreless before the White Sox pushed across two runs in the eighth against Hernandez, who had gone 7-1 in his previous 10 starts. Conor Gillaspie had a leadoff triple and scored on Dayan Viciedos double. Tyler Flowers added a sacrifice fly. Quintana allowed four hits and walked one in 7 2-3 scoreless innings. The 10 strikeouts matched a season high for the left-hander, who is 2-0 with a sparkling 0.94 ERA in his last four starts. "I throw my pitches in the counnt, throw both sides, getting ahead in the count - it (becomes) more important inning by inning," Quintana said.
Custom Dallas Stars Jersey. "I keep going with that, its the best thing for long games for me." Chicago was in line for its second straight win against Seattle before the Mariners rallied in the ninth. Mike Zunino had a sacrifice fly against Zach Putnam before consecutive two-out singles by Morrison and Saunders produced the tying run. Morrisons grounder went off the glove of diving first baseman Jose Abreu and bounced past Beckham on the way to right field. Hernandez allowed three hits, struck out eight and walked one. The 2010 AL Cy Young Award winner is 1-5 with a 4.50 ERA in nine career starts at the White Sox. "He did a great job today and kept us in the ballgame the entire way through," Saunders said. Hernandez and Quintana were locked in an impressive duel before the late scoring. Quintana struck out six while retiring his first 11 batters, including the side in the second. Robinson Cano had a two-out single for Seattles first baserunner in the fourth, but Quintana fanned Corey Hart to end the inning. Hernandez was just as dominant, retiring 11 in a row after Adam Eatons leadoff single in the first. He also set down 10 in a row in another impressive stretch. Hernandez got some help from his defence. James Jones crashed into wall in centre to rob Abreu of extra bases in the fourth, and left fielder Willie Bloomquist made a leaping grab on the warning track on Viciedos drive in the fifth. The White Sox had their own defensive gem in the 11th inning when Adam Eaton reached back to grab Morrisons leadoff drive while slamming into the wall in centre. NOTES: Quintana also had 10 strikeouts in a no-decision against Detroit on April 29. His career high is 11, set last July 4 against Baltimore. ... McClendon said LHP James Paxton threw "extremely well" during his bullpen session on Friday. Paxton is on the 60-day DL with a left lat dorsi muscle strain. ... OF Cole Gillespie, who designed for assignment by Seattle on Friday, was claimed off waivers by Toronto. ... Mariners RHP Taijuan Walker (1-0, 4.50 ERA) faces RHP Hector Noesi (2-6, 5.33 ERA) in the series finale on Sunday.
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