~Fragi~
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~CHANDNI~ said:
~Fragi~ said:
aap tu 2003 mein ayee they janab
HMMMM
JAB MAY aye tab jo moghy yade party hay active memberz wol WOL KIDDO TT YAS CUTEFRIND QV SHERARA LONDON KI HOOR MG OR RAJA BAKI OR kon kon tha fragiii???
~Fragi~
Age: 43
8160 days old here
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Effects on China ...
Few questions confound economists more: What might tip China into the meltdown that so many have feared for so many years?
Possibilities include overheating, social instability, corruption, pollution, debt crises, war over Taiwan and a post- Olympics growth swoon. It's a perfectly rational expectation. No rapidly industrializing nation has ever avoided some kind of crisis, least of all upstarts in Asia.
The list rarely, if ever, included a Wall Street crash. And yet, financial troubles in the U.S. may be the catalyst that devastates the world's fourth-biggest economy.
This will sound like a reach to those viewing Asia's strengths. China, for example, is enjoying 10 percent growth as U.S. lawmakers argue over rescuing markets and averting a depression. With its US$1.8 trillion of reserves, China could bail out the U.S. without batting an eye.
Japan is returning to acquisition mode after its banks avoided the toxic debt devastating U.S. peers. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc.'s US$9 billion investment in Morgan Stanley this week is a case in point. After years of lecturing Japan about its shaky banks, the U.S. is coming hat-in-hand to Tokyo.
Yet China's chances of avoiding the U.S. crisis are dwindling by the day.
"U.S. consumers are tapped out and they're going to stop buying Chinese exports," says Simon Grose-Hodge, a strategist at LGT Group in Singapore. "There's no way China's domestic demand can take up that slack."
Recession risks
Adds Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University in Beijing: "We should all hope the recession associated with the U.S. financial crisis is very, very mild."
The odds of a mild U.S. slowdown are declining almost as fast as stock prices. Even with hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Wall Street bailouts, consumption decreases and big job cuts will probably intensify.
The slow drip, drip, drip nature of Wall Street's swoon should concern officials in Beijing. China's mercantilist model makes the most populous nation dangerously dependent on consumers in the biggest economy. Growth in Asia will experience quite a setback if the U.S. enters a prolonged period of weakness.
Little help
While a Japan-like "lost decade" isn't the best-case scenario, Americans aren't sitting on the kind of savings that Asians are. As U.S. growth slows, debt is reduced and households increase savings, exporters such as Hong Kong, South Korea and Thailand must look elsewhere for demand.
Europe and Japan may be of little help. Japan is on the verge of a recession, while Europe is becoming increasingly vulnerable to events in the U.S. China will be hurt by all of the above, ridding Asia of a key source of stability.
Many say China's slowing from 10 percent growth to 8 percent isn't a disaster. Yet if a government relies on rising prosperity to conceal domestic challenges - including the widening gap between rich and poor - slowing growth is a major problem.
Nothing less than a drastic rebalancing will be required: More domestic consumption, a strengthening currency and greater investment in health care, pensions and education. Pulling that off quickly and with minimal disruption would be a feat like no other in economic history.
Anyone who believes China is set for smooth sailing as the U.S. sinks is likely to be as wrong as those arguing a year ago that the subprime-loan crisis was containable.
Asia decoupling
One of the key points here is the importance of Asia decoupling itself from the U.S. once and for all. It's easier said than done.
It's often pointed out that Asia is holding the cards. Were China to dump its US$519 billion of Treasuries, the U.S. would be in for a shock. So would China, as the fallout in the U.S. would drag on China's all-important export industries.
Stocks, too. Many Chinese are recession virgins - they are far more used to booming than slowing growth. Equity investors are far more accustomed to double-digit gains than big drops in shares. It's an open question how this year's 58 percent plunge in Chinese shares affects sentiment.
There is reason to think Asia can stand its ground. The region's improvements since the 1997 crisis left banks stable, markets humming and currency reserves at comfortable levels. Turmoil in the U.S. is encouraging Asia to take steps to become more independent from bigger economies.
Ignoring advice
Nations such as China are succeeding by ignoring advice from officials in Washington. After years of being lectured to bolster its banks, China is watching as the financial system the U.S. espoused as optimal crumbles.
The reluctance of Asian banks to buy hard-to-value securities such as collateralized debt obligations left them in "rock solid" financial shape, says Marc Faber, managing director of Marc Faber Ltd. in Hong Kong. Also, central banks have been taking steps to boost investor and consumer confidence.
If things get shakier, though, Asia could be dragged down with the U.S. economy. Amid unprecedented upheaval, it almost seems fitting that a risk few considered a year ago could be the one to undermine China.
~Fragi~
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Effects of Wall Street Crash on Polls 2008 :-
Wall Street just jumped into the race for the White House in a big way. The ongoing crisis in credit markets—and taxpayer assistance for a growing list of troubled companies—is taking center stage for both Presidential campaigns. The issue is also offering voters a peek at each candidate's approach toward greater regulation of financial markets.
Both campaigns are fervently advocating tougher government oversight—a departure from the Bush Administration's more hands-off approach to financial matters. Senator Barack Obama (D-Ill.) argues that America needs a "21st-century regulatory system" and has seized on the liquidity crisis as an indictment of Republican policies. "What we've seen the last few days is nothing less than the final verdict on an economic philosophy that has completely failed," Obama said in a Sept. 16 speech in Golden, Colo.
Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.), a longtime critic of excessive government intervention, vowed on Sept. 16 to "put an end…to running Wall Street like a casino." At an Orlando rally Sept. 16, McCain called for a high-level commission to investigate the securities industry, and for ending "multimillion-dollar payouts to CEOs that have broken the public trust." Unease on Main Street
Analysts are trying to decipher how all the rhetoric could translate into action in a new Administration. "We're going to get some sort of financial regulatory bill in 2009," says Dan Clifton, a Washington-based analyst with Strategas Research Partners, a New York investment research firm. "The question is, what will it look like? Obama says he'll reject Bush's deregulation philosophy. McCain says he'll reform Washington and Wall Street. We're waiting for their specific plans." Clifton says analysts are trying to discern whether, if elected, McCain would adopt a "pragmatic" agenda that would "balance regulation with growth," or whether he would extend Bush's legacy. "That's the big wild card about John McCain." Obama, Clifton says, is more predictable: "He's clearly about regulation."
Given the turmoil, and the unease it inspires on Main Street, what matters on Nov. 4 will be which candidate presents voters with the more effective story on how to reform Wall Street excess. Conventional political wisdom says that the campaign's shift from a debate over Alaska Governor Sarah Palin's Vice-Presidential qualifications to financial trouble should favor Obama, who is quickly drawing connections between the crisis and Bush policies—and McCain. At the Colorado School of Mines, Obama pinned the blame for the crisis squarely on the Republican philosophy of deregulation. Still, Obama has had trouble making headway among many independent and low-income voters (BusinessWeek.com, 8/24/08) who backed Senator Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) in the Democratic primaries.
For its part, the McCain campaign is working to position the longtime Senate "maverick" as ready, willing, and able to clean up a broken financial system. McCain's financial commission would be modeled on the kind of panel that investigated the 2001 terrorist attacks. "We need to set up a 9/11 Commission in order to get to the bottom of this and get it fixed and act to clean up this corruption," McCain said in an interview with CBS. McCain's Populist Turn
Obama quickly ridiculed the idea. "Instead of offering up concrete plans to solve these issues, Senator McCain offered up the oldest Washington stunt in the book: You pass the buck to a commission to study the problem," Obama said. "That's how we got into this mess." Obama referenced a speech he made in March on financial-market overhaul at Cooper Union in New York. At that event, Obama recommended extending commercial-banking regulations to investment banks, hedge funds, and mortgage brokers. He also called for a commission to monitor threats to the financial system.
McCain's rhetoric has sharpened as the financial crisis has unfolded. In a Sept. 15 speech he maintained that the fundamentals of the economy are still strong; he later claimed he was referring to the strength and innovation of American workers. "We've seen self-interest, greed, irresponsibility, and corruption undermine these hard-working American people," McCain said Sept. 16 in Florida, a day after his campaign released a new television commercial focused on Wall Street turbulence: "Our economy is in crisis. Only proven reformers John McCain and Sarah Palin can fix it." The ad continues by saying a McCain-Palin Administration will propose "tougher rules on Wall Street to protect your life savings, no special-interest giveaways, and lower taxes to create jobs."
Both candidates will continue to position themselves as reformers of a financial system that's gone off the rails. What's not clear is how much more turmoil Wall Street has in store before the election—or how much change the public will demand.
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